At last, it’s over. With roughly 67% of the vote, António José Seguro has won Portugal’s presidential runoff and will assume office in March 2026, succeeding Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa as President of the Republic. He won more votes than any other candidate for the presidency in history.
Despite the noise and anxiety—particularly among foreign residents and observers—this election ultimately reaffirmed something deeply Portuguese: a preference for stability, moderation, and institutional calm.
A Useful Reality Check on the Far Right
One of the clearest takeaways is that André Ventura/Chega has a ceiling. That ceiling appears to be around 30%. Significant, yes—but nowhere near enough to win a national, head-of-state race. As in this race, he was clearly not going to win - freeing some to vote for him in protest. Yet, he got fewer votes overall than his party did in the alt election.
Even more telling than the vote share was how Ventura campaigned. Rather than running against Seguro, he spent much of his time attacking the prime minister—an unmistakable sign this was as much about brand-building and publicity as it was about the presidency. His clumsy, highly staged photo ops during the recent storms—loading a few bottles of water, awkwardly offering to use camping billboards to “help” with roof repairs—only underscored the point. It didn’t look presidential. It looked ridiculous.
Ventura’s rise has always been fueled less by personal empathy or governing skill and more by public frustration: the housing crisis, corruption scandals tied to mainstream parties, and economic pressure. This election showed that anger alone is not enough to win Portugal’s highest office.
Seguro’s Strength: Calm, Credibility, Humanity
Seguro, by contrast, ran exactly the campaign Portugal tends to reward. Low drama. Clear respect for institutions. Visible humanity during crises—without theatrics. He checked the boxes Portuguese voters expect in a president: restraint, steadiness, and moral authority rather than empty swagger.
This matters because Portugal’s presidency is not designed to dominate politics.
Understanding the Office: Why This Is Not a Trump or Brexit Moment
Portugal is in its Third Republic, operating under a semi-presidential system. The president is head of state, not head of government. Unlike the U.S. president—or even the French president—the Portuguese president holds no direct executive power.
Instead, the role is often described as a “moderating power.” The president:
Promulgates laws passed by Parliament or the government,
Can veto legislation (subject to parliamentary override),
Can refer laws to the Constitutional Court,
Acts as a stabilizing counterweight in moments of political tension.
This structure is precisely why comparisons to Trump-era America or pre/post-Brexit Britain don’t quite hold. Portugal’s system is intentionally designed to slow things down, not inflame them.
As Reuters noted in its pre-runoff analysis, the presidency is about institutional balance, not ideological conquest.
A Message for So-Called Expats and Would-Be Movers
Many so-called “expats” feared this election, reading it through an Anglo-American lens shaped by recent political trauma. That fear was understandable—but misplaced.
Portugal is not the U.S.And, Portugal is not the U.K. Most Portuguese voters are not looking for disruption for disruption’s sake.
This election showed that a little more faith—and a little less imported fear—would serve everyone better.
Now What? Well....
Portugal reaffirmed its commitment to democratic moderation
The far right was tested—and contained
Institutions held
Stability won
António José Seguro’s victory doesn’t signal dramatic change. And that, for Portugal, is exactly the point.
For residents, investors, travelers, and those building a life here: this was not a warning sign. It was a course correction—and a reminder of how Portuguese democracy actually works. Let's hope Americans are paying attention.
Jayme H. Simões is a Portugal–U.S. communications consultant who writes about the realities of moving, living, and retiring in Portugal, based on first hand experience.
Let’s Move to Portugal Now is an independent resource for Americans considering life in Portugal. We provide practical, experience-based information on visas, housing, health care, cost of living, and everyday life—focused on clarity, realism, and informed choices. This site is not affiliated with the Portuguese government and does not offer legal or immigration advice.
© Let’s Move to Portugal Now. All rights reserved.