Today, Portugal faces a presidential runoff. For many so-called expats, it has been treated like a “dark day”—a moment of panic prompted by the fact that André Ventura, leader of Chega, captured roughly 23% of the national vote.
But as we say in journalism: not only is the lead buried—you’ve missed the story.
The Real Headline: A Revival on the Left
The real news is the re-emergence of the center-left. Nearly 32% of the vote—spread across a crowded field of eleven candidates—coalesced around António Seguro, former leader of the Socialist Party. And he won in towns that rarely vote for the left. Seguro prevailed in a fragmented race dominated largely by center-right and right-leaning candidates. He picked up a 12% jump in recent weeks, pulling voters from the center right - and mostly from the Marques Mendes, the PSD-linked candidate. Now, Seguro is well positioned to defeat Ventura in the runoff.
Why? Because 23% is Ventura’s ceiling. He may gain some additional votes, but he will not approach 50%. Portugal is not the United States, and Chega is not Trumpism redux. The parallels are superficial.
Chega Is a Symptom, Not a Destiny
Yes, Chega feeds on familiar elements: fear, racism, populist spectacle, and outrage politics. But its rise is rooted in distinctly Portuguese conditions:
Long-standing corruption and inertia within the two main parties, Partido Socialista (PS) and Partido Social Democrata (PSD)
Low wages and high taxes that have eroded purchasing power
A housing crisis worsened by poor planning and mismanagement
A burst of immigration without infrastructure or strategy
And policies—most notably the Golden Visa—that drove prices in Lisbon, Porto, and the Algarve beyond the reach of locals
These failures hollowed out trust and opened space for an extreme-right party led by a former sports commentator, surrounded by accused criminals and political failures. Chega’s surge—now second in parliament—was fueled in no small part by conservative Portuguese voters living abroad.
Meanwhile, the traditional left—PS, the Communists, and Bloco de Esquerda—paid a steep price for years in power. Prices rose faster than wages. Portugal fell behind newer EU member states in the East. Voters responded accordingly.
And yes, this is uncomfortable to hear: the very joy some newcomers take in “affordable” Portuguese property has consequences. Actions have consequences. Housing scarcity is political fuel.
Perspective Matters—Portugal Has Seen Worse
If you survive a house fire, you fear fires in any house. To those now predicting doom, two simple truths:
First: Portugal has survived far worse.Invasions. Occupations. Dynastic crises. Earthquakes. Colonial wars. And a decades-long dictatorship.
Second: Memory here is long. Many Portuguese still remember the poverty, injustice, and fear of the Estado Novo. When people say “25 de Abril sempre,” they mean it. “Never again” is not a slogan—it is lived memory.
Portugal emerged as a nation in the 12th century, while the Roman Empire still stood in the East and America had yet to exist in anyone's imagination, let alone fact. André Ventura will not be the end of Portugal. He does not have the depth, the coalition, or the history on his side.
When Portugal Is Threatened, Portugal Unites
This is the country where:
During COVID, 93% of the population chose vaccination.
When Spain invaded in 1665, the nation rose—from north to south—to fight at Battle of Montes Claros.
Portugal has survived because unity appears when it is most needed.
It takes more than a collection of halfwits and criminals to end Portugal.
And if you truly want to be Portuguese—rather than merely an expat—you must believe in Portugal the way the Portuguese do: with faith shaped by the past (imagined and real), with the stubborn hope of D. Sebastião returning on a foggy morning, with the hoper of another miracle of Ourique, and with the enduring promise of April.
Because hope, after all, is the last thing to die.
And, Portugal lives.
Jayme H. Simões is a Portugal–U.S. communications consultant who writes about the realities of moving, living, and retiring in Portugal, based on first hand experience.
Let’s Move to Portugal Now is an independent resource for Americans considering life in Portugal. We provide practical, experience-based information on visas, housing, health care, cost of living, and everyday life—focused on clarity, realism, and informed choices. This site is not affiliated with the Portuguese government and does not offer legal or immigration advice.
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